منابع مشابه
Viewpoint: Boosting Recessions
This paper explores the effectiveness of boosting, often regarded as the state of the art classification tool, in giving warning signals of recessions 3, 6, and 12 months ahead. Boosting is used to screen as many as 1,500 potentially relevant predictors consisting of 132 real and financial time series and their lags. Estimation over the full sample 1961:1– 2011:12 finds that there are fewer tha...
متن کاملBoosting Recessions
This paper explores the effectiveness of boosting, often regarded as the state of the art classification tool, in giving warning signals of recessions three, six and twelve months ahead. Boosting is used to screen as many as 1500 potentially relevant predictors consisting of 132 real and financial time series and their lags. Estimation over the full sample 1961:1-2011:12 finds that there are fe...
متن کاملInternational Recessions
The 2008-2009 US crisis is characterized by un unprecedent degree of international synchronization with all other G7 countries experiencing large contractions at almost the same time as the US. Another feature of the crisis is the sharp fall in US employment but not in US productivity. These two features—international synchronization and absence of significant productivity fall—are not present ...
متن کاملWhat Predicts U.S. Recessions?
We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. While the Treasury term spread has the highest predictive powe...
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Over the 1976-2010 period, total mortality shifted from strongly procyclical to being weakly or unrelated to macroeconomic conditions. The association is likely to be poorly measured when using short (less than 15 year) analysis periods. Deaths from cardiovascular disease and transport accidents continue to be procyclical; however, countercyclical patterns have emerged for fatalities from cance...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0008-4085,1540-5982
DOI: 10.1111/caje.12070